F1 COTA Review

Decisions Made

• Race winner confirmed: Antonelli (P1), Leclerc (P2), Verstappen (P3), Hamilton (P4), Norris (P5), Hadjar (P6), Piastri (P7), Russell (P8), Lawson (P9)
• Drivers' Championship near-certain: Antonelli projected to clinch the title as early as Mexico, given his commanding points lead of 365 vs. Russell's 242 and Hamilton's 241
• Constructors' standings tight: Red Bull and McLaren tied at 355 points; Mercedes leading, Ferrari second at 474
• Cadillac/Andretti theory: Scott believes the Cadillac F1 entry was a strategic vehicle to get Andretti into the sport, predicting a majority stake sale to Andretti Autosport over the winter break, citing Mario Andretti's presence at COTA as a signal
• Christian Horner landing spot: Consensus that Horner will not go to Ferrari (won't cede control) or Aston Martin (Lawrence Stroll won't risk losing his son's seat); Alpine or Audi floated as realistic destinations
• Cadillac engine timeline: Cadillac slated to introduce their own engines in 2028, their third year in the sport

Race Breakdown

Pre-Race & Qualifying

• FP1–FP3 highlights: Leclerc fastest in FP1 (1:36) and FP2 (1:35); Hamilton set the best FP3 time at 1:34.893; Verstappen complained about his car across sessions; Antonelli repeatedly exceeded track limits
• Qualifying result: Antonelli on pole with a 1:34.035; Verstappen P2; Hadjar P3; Leclerc P4; Hamilton P5; Russell P6; Piastri P7
• Pole position nuance: On this track, P2 (inside line) argued to be strategically advantageous over pole

Grid Penalties

• Bortoleto (Car 5): 80-place grid penalty for replacing multiple power unit elements including exhaust
• Colapinto (Car 43): 10-place grid penalty for additional power unit usage
• Stroll: Required to start from pit lane for modifying car under parc fermé conditions plus additional power unit element
• Lindblad: 5-place grid penalty for additional power unit element

Race Events — Lap by Lap

• Lap 1: Leclerc and Hamilton both gained positions off the start; Verstappen retook P2; multiple cars made contact, bumping tires in the midfield
• Laps 2–3: VSC deployed; yellow flag for track debris (suspected bodywork from contact incidents)
• Russell: Noted for leaving track and gaining advantage; received a 5-second penalty
• Colapinto: Lost bodywork early; later told to retire due to car damage
• Lap 14: Verstappen pitted unexpectedly — Dustin explained this was likely to inspect suspected front wing damage after radio communication with his engineering team, not just a tire change
• Lap 15: Piastri and Leclerc boxed; Lap 17 Norris pitted for hards
• Lap 18: Verstappen passed Russell; Piastri passed Gasly; Biermann received a 10-second penalty for causing a collision with Gasly (Car 10) at Turn 13, deemed wholly at fault
• Lap 20: Leclerc passed Russell; Lap 23 Hadjar ordered to let Verstappen through
• Lap 25: Antonelli boxed for hards; Lap 26 Hadjar boxed
• Lap 31: Verstappen boxed for a final set of mediums; Lap 32 Antonelli passed Leclerc to take P1
• Laps 39–42: Hamilton pitted for hards; Leclerc boxed for hards; Hamilton passed Hadjar
• Lap 49: Leclerc passed Verstappen to move to P2
• Lap 51: Hamilton passed Norris at Turn 1 to take P3; Bottas retired with engine issues, unable to get car into neutral — crew struggled visibly to push the stationary car
• VSC (Laps 51–52): Bottas's retirement triggered yellow flag and VSC; debate arose over whether Mercedes should have pitted Antonelli during the VSC given his 23-second lead, but Dustin noted it occurred at Lap 52 of 56 with little strategic upside
• Race end: Antonelli held P1 through the VSC restart; final order unchanged at the top

Notable Radio Moments

• Stroll on radio: Asked his engineer "how's my lap time?" — crew noted they would have told him the truth
• Hadjar's reaction: Screamed expletives when told to let Verstappen through, questioning the strategy
• Ocon's defiance: Asked to be let past his teammate; when team hesitated, told them to "just watch the in-car camera for the next 3 laps," prompting the team to immediately radio the other driver to yield

Championship & Team Analysis

Drivers' Championship Standings

• Antonelli: 365 points — on track to become the youngest F1 champion ever, not yet old enough to drink in the United States
• Russell: 242 points — struggling, finished P8 after falling as low as P10 mid-race; crew noted Mercedes is allocating upgrades primarily to Antonelli's car, leaving Russell on an earlier-spec machine
• Hamilton: 241 points — crew predicts Hamilton will ultimately beat Russell for P2 in drivers' standings
• Verstappen: 236 points — 7 points behind Hamilton; battery management issues audible during straights at COTA
• Leclerc: 233 points

Red Bull's Decline

• Losing Adrian Newey and Christian Horner identified as major structural blows
• Gianpiero Lambiase (GP) departing to McLaren; replaced by Tom Hart, who has been with Verstappen since 2012
• Crew reminisced about GP's famous "shut up and drive, you're in first!" radio call to Verstappen, noting Hart will need to handle Verstappen's constant complaints
• Verstappen's father and his actions over the past two years cited (via a referenced interview with Horner) as having "knocked them out of contention"

Ferrari Strategy Problem

• Cars described as "lights out" in pace this season, yet strategy consistently costs them positions and podiums
• Example cited: Hamilton put on a medium tire set for a middle stint, ran only 12 laps, then brought back in for different rubber — crew baffled
• Fred Vasseur expected to lose his job after the season
• Leclerc subject to team orders regularly; broader Ferrari turmoil traced back to post-Schumacher era

McLaren vs. Red Bull — Constructors' Fight

• Tied at 355 points; crew believes McLaren is losing momentum as other teams improve
• Piastri described as "dead weight" relative to Norris; last season Piastri was considered competitive, but now the two appear to be "driving two different cars"
• Suspicion raised that Zac Brown is deliberately prioritizing Norris's setup as a British team preference

Honda Engine Issues (Aston Martin)

• Honda engine powering Aston Martin described as "only slightly better than what Cadillac has"
• Contrast drawn with Honda's dominant era supplying Red Bull (RB20) — the key engineers who built that program have since left; the current Honda group assembled hastily
• Alonso cited as proof the car is the problem, not the driver

Cadillac F1

• Bottas retirement highlighted — car could not be put into neutral; crew pushed it without success for over 30 seconds on broadcast
• Cadillac has technically had drivers cross the finish line a "couple of times," though usually lapped
• Brakes-catching-fire issues from early in the season reportedly resolved
• Both Bottas and Perez described as "pretty decent" drivers held back by an underpowered, unreliable car
• Scott's Andretti acquisition theory: Cadillac entry was a Trojan horse; once a manufacturer was admitted, the door couldn't be closed — Andretti was previously blocked by a Toto Wolff veto

Lance Stroll — Dedicated Segment ("Lasting Moments with Lance Stroll")

• Finished P15, up 7 positions from his starting spot; only completed the race because he was a lap down
• Described as not practicing, not using the simulator, living a "party boy lifestyle"
• Salary confirmed at $15 million/year (raised from $12M this year)
• Crew consensus: he doesn't need to try because his father Lawrence Stroll owns Aston Martin
• Contrasted with Verstappen, who reportedly practices on PlayStation F1 games (having abandoned the team simulator)

Driver Salary Discussion

Driver Base Salary
Max Verstappen ~$70M base; up to $92M euros/year with bonuses; cumulative contract value estimated 460–500M euros
Lewis Hamilton $60M base
Charles Leclerc $34M
George Russell $34M
Lando Norris $30M
Fernando Alonso $20M
Carlos Sainz $13M
Oscar Piastri $13M
Pierre Gasly / Alexander Albon / Lance Stroll $12M each
Kimi Antonelli $2–3.4M base — crew anticipates major renegotiation after this season

• Verstappen's performance bonuses can push total to an estimated $110–120M USD; full contract cumulative value up to 500M euros if all bonuses hit
• Bottas currently earning more than Antonelli on base pay alone, despite Antonelli leading the championship

Mexico Grand Prix Preview

• Date: Race weekend begins October 30; race on November 1
• Track characteristic: Cuts through a stadium; features multiple long straights — identified as problematic for Verstappen's battery management
• Verstappen's battery drain was audible during COTA straights — RPMs dropping noticeably on the straights

Predictions

Source P1 P2 P3
Scott Antonelli Verstappen Ferrari
Burke Ferrari Antonelli Verstappen
Gemini AI Antonelli Leclerc Verstappen
ChatGPT Verstappen Antonelli Leclerc

• McLaren expected to finish P4–P7 range; not considered podium contenders on this layout
• Ferrari strategy identified as the wildcard that could self-sabotage even a competitive car
• Las Vegas: Verstappen's best remaining shot — narrow streets make passing difficult, so if he qualifies on pole, he has a strong chance of winning
• Brazil: Scott's pick as Verstappen's strongest remaining track — corner-heavy, only one notable straight

Remaining 2025 Calendar

• Mexico → Brazil → Las Vegas → Qatar → Abu Dhabi (5 races remaining)
• Qatar/Abu Dhabi status uncertain due to regional conflict concerns — Imola mentioned as a possible replacement

Production & Broadcast Critique

• Sky Sports F1 coverage criticized heavily by Scott: camera focused almost exclusively on the top 3–4 cars for the first 12 laps while midfield battles went unshown
• Replays shown of missed action, but crew felt live coverage of midfield was essential
• Proposed solution: Quad-view for the first 4 laps, transitioning to split-screen as the field strings out
• FIA stewarding inconsistency noted: Russell received a 5-second penalty for leaving track and gaining a place; Biermann received a 10-second penalty for what appeared to be minor tire contact with Gasly — crew felt the stewards "have their favorites"
• Verstappen noted to have gone off track twice at COTA with no warning issued; crew acknowledged that going off without gaining position typically isn't penalized

Verstappen GT3 Race — Side Discussion

• Dustin shared a YouTube link of a GT3 endurance race featuring Verstappen's team (3-hour, 3-driver, 1-hour stints)
• Verstappen started P24 after a time penalty and worked his way to P9 in 40 minutes, described as "a joy to watch"
• Crew expressed surprise Verstappen re-signed his F1 contract with Red Bull rather than switching to GT racing full-time; Burke theorized he's waiting for the incoming V8 engine regulations as a potential rejuvenation of his F1 enthusiasm